Analyst warns Taiwan's low birth rate threatens long-term housing values
分析師警告：台灣的低出生率恐將威脅長期房價價值
| TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s record-low fertility rate is hitting its housing market, with experts warning that outer suburban areas and aging buildings face long-term value declines as buyer demand shrinks and inherited homes flood the market.
UDN reported real estate analyst “Zack” as saying Ministry of the Interior data shows the share of married women aged 25-35 has fallen from 52% to 41% over the past decade. For men in the same age group, the percentage has slid from 37% to 29%, with more than half of people aged 25-44 now unmarried. Media sources suggest the fertility rate stood at 0.695 in 2025, well below the 2.1 replacement level, with only about 107,000 births for the year. Based on the first five months of 2026, annual births could fall below 90,000, signaling further population decline. Zack, who has a Youtube channel called “Superzack,” identified high home prices as the main factor reducing willingness to have children. He cited a nationwide price-to-income ratio of 9.71 and an average mortgage burden rate of 42.2%, exceeding 60% in Taipei and New Taipei. Zack described rapid population shrinkage as an extinction event for Taiwan’s real estate, warning that the core home-buying cohort aged 30-45 could shrink from 4.4 million to 2.4 million in 30 years. Meanwhile, inheritance of properties may turn potential buyers into sellers. As the population falls, people will concentrate in the six major cities and prime urban cores, Zack said. This leaves remote areas and underdeveloped outer suburbs vulnerable to becoming negative assets with little buyer demand. Monetary policy affects short-term prices, but long-term housing values are driven by demographics, he said, urging individuals to factor long-term trends into asset allocation decisions. |
|
| Jules Quartly Jules Quartly(Taiwan News, Staff Writer) | |
| 2026-08-10 |
