Taiwan think tank forecasts economic growth above 3%
台灣智庫預測經濟成長率將超過3%
| TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – Despite uncertainty over US tariffs, Taiwan’s economic growth in 2025 is likely to stay above 3%, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research said Thursday.
Due to the lack of an agreement with the US on tariff levels so far, most observers have predicted that Taiwan’s gross domestic product would fail to reach 3%. However, the institution forecast 3.05%, as it expects tariffs between 15% and 20%, per CNA. Strong demand for AI products and a flood of orders trying to preempt the tariffs fueled a sharp rise in exports during the first half of the year, resulting in a growth figure of 5.17%, according to the institution. However, because of the tariffs, growth for the second half of 2025 is likely slow down to 1.08%, with the fourth quarter likely to post 0.66%. Export figures for the whole year are likely to increase 13.74% from last year. The Chung-Hua Institution said a positive performance during the first half of the year might offset any slowdown during the second half. Taiwan’s economy is in a strong position because of its key role in the development of AI. The consumer price index is likely to stay below 2%, at 1.89%, due to the strength of the Taiwan dollar. The combination of US tariffs and the exchange rate however would concern exporters. Looking ahead at 2026, the Chung-Hua Institution expects 2.45% economic growth and 1.85% inflation. |
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| Matthew Strong Taiwan News, Staff Writer | |
| 2025-07-17 |
